![]() I wouldn’t care about this much if there had been a steady gap between the markets and the models. Several other models are similar or don’t even show a Republican rebound at all. ![]() And it’s not just FiveThirtyEight’s model. It’s also not crazy for markets to have anticipated some fallout for Democrats from Thursday morning’s worse-than-expected inflation report.īut the gap between the markets and the models is big - and growing. How come? Well, as I wrote two weeks ago, I don’t think it’s crazy for the markets to be concerned about systematic polling bias. The markets were in pretty good alignment with FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for most of the cycle now they’re not. That’s up from a low of 33 percent in late August. In fact, the markets have the race at nearly even, with Republicans having a 49 percent chance of Senate control. In betting markets, there’s been a much sharper shift. That’s up from a low of 29 percent in mid-September. In FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, 1 the GOP now has a 34 percent chance of recapturing the Senate. And the answer is … probably some, but not necessarily as much as the conventional wisdom holds. ![]() For the past few weeks, we’ve been trying to figure out to what extent, if any, Republicans have regained ground in the race for control of Congress. ![]()
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